Dengue Alert Issued by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a Dengue Alert for the post-monsoon period from 20th September to 5th December 2024. The alert highlights favorable conditions for a dengue outbreak, particularly with temperatures ranging between 26°C and 29°C and humidity levels around 60%. Rainfall exceeding 27mm is also a contributing factor. Dengue activity is most intense two hours after sunrise and before sunset.

Affected Areas:
The outbreak is predicted to impact major cities, including:

Karachi
Lahore
Rawalpindi
Islamabad
Peshawar
Faisalabad
Sialkot
Multan
Hyderabad
Larkana

Recommendations:
The PMD advises all stakeholders to implement preventive measures and closely monitor the situation. Health agencies and dengue control centers are encouraged to stay updated through the PMD website for further information.

Dengue fever has significantly impacted public health over the past ten years, especially during the post-monsoon season (20th September to 5th December), when favorable conditions persist. Outbreaks occur when temperature and humidity thresholds remain between 26°C to 29°C and 60% for 3-5 weeks. Rainfall above 27mm, with a maximum time lag of three weeks, also plays a role. Dengue activity is heightened two hours after sunrise and two hours before sunset. Breeding ceases once temperatures drop below 16°C.

Stakeholders are urged to take preemptive action against the dengue outbreak in affected districts. National health agencies and dengue control centers are advised to remain informed by regularly checking the PMD website (http://www.pmd.gov.pk).

Past data analysis, along with current and future climate outlooks, particularly after the retreat of the monsoon, indicate that the atmospheric conditions are ideal for a dengue outbreak. According to the analysis, conditions have been conducive for the onset of dengue since mid-September 2024, with an outbreak expected in October 2024, particularly in ten major cities of Pakistan, including Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Hyderabad, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Larkana, and Multan, as well as in other post-monsoon rainfall-affected areas.