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Pakistan Elections Scenario by Credit Suisse !

by Mohammad Asad
Jun 22, 2014
in Featured, Islamabad
0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan Market Strategy

Elections 2013: Game changer:

capture-20130510-194454

Pakistan is heading for its most decisive elections in nearly four decades,with election campaigning now in full swing. With less than a week to go to polling, we preview the likely political scenarios that may emerge and their implications.

■  PML-N leading the pack. The PML-N appears to be leading in most opinion polls, and is likely to be form the next coalition government (55% probability). A late swing in favour of the PTI has a 30% probability in our view, while a return of the PPP with a lower mandate due to a split of right votes between PML-N and PTI cannot be completely ruled out.

■  Imran’s emerging as serious challenger. After lagging the PML-N in most polls, there has been a sizeable swing in favour of Imran lately. Interestingly,a strong Imran show could result in a hung Parliament, though it would still be long-term positive, as he would keep the pressure on the PML-N.

■  IMF deal post elections, PKR in for a tough ride. A new US$5-6 bn IMF programme  to  stabilise  reserves  is  likely  to  be  signed  by  the  new government  with  an  understanding  already  reached  with  the  coalition government. The PKR, though, remains on course for 7-8% depreciation in
the next 3-6 months.

■  Market re-rating on the cards, hung Parliament is key risk. A clear PML-N or PTI victory could result in a market re-rating with a 15-20% rally over the next 3-6 months. In contrast, a hung Parliament or a return of the PPP remains a key risk. We like Engro, OGDC, Lucky, POL and Fatima, while Mansha group (MCB, DGKC and NML) should be major beneficiaries given their known differences with the PPP.

TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE DOWNLOAD THIS PDF

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Tags: Credit SuisseelectionsElections 2013Imran KhanInternational Monetary FundNawaz SharifPakistanPakistan Muslim League (N)Pakistan Peoples PartyPML-NPPPPTI
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