Consumers May Face Up to 18 Hours of Gas Loadshedding in Winter

As winter looms over Pakistan, an imminent gas shortage with up to 18 hours of loadshedding appears to be on the horizon due to uncertainties surrounding the arrival of an LNG cargo from Azerbaijan’s state-owned company, SOCAR, in January 2024. According to officials from the energy ministry speaking to The News, this absence could compound an already anticipated gas shortfall.

Initially projected at 360 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) for December 2023, the gas deficit is expected to surge to 470 MMCFD in January 2024. These estimations have factored in limitations on gas availability, restricted to a mere 8 hours for domestic use during cooking times.

The absence of the anticipated SOCAR cargo in January threatens to exacerbate the crisis, potentially compelling the government to further reduce gas availability to domestic sectors from 8 hours down to just 6.

Reports indicate that SOCAR might be unable to offer distressed LNG cargo for January, hinting at potential complications in the supply chain. The deal between Pakistan and Azerbaijan, initiated during Shehbaz Sharif’s tenure, secured a monthly LNG cargo agreement with SOCAR, which seems to be encountering hurdles.

While an agreement was signed between Pakistan and Azerbaijan in July 2023, extending for a year and potentially another, SOCAR’s hesitance to offer the LNG cargo for January is attributed to evolving dynamics in Western economies, impacting distressed LNG availability.

There remains a window of time, and there’s a possibility that SOCAR might present an offer for January 2024, although uncertainties persist. Meanwhile, Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) is navigating its own plans, intending to market tenders for spot cargoes for January, seeking exemptions from certain regulatory timeframes to streamline the process.

The energy deficit in both the Sui Southern and Sui Northern systems is forecasted, with the January shortfall potentially being more pronounced due to the prospective non-arrival of the SOCAR LNG cargo. In the midst of this, Pakistan is looking toward Qatar for an increased supply, potentially modifying its cargo terms and exploring various sources to alleviate the impending crisis.

In the face of this shortfall, heightened demand, and challenges with local gas production, Pakistan grapples with the complexities of its gas supply chain, where both domestic and international factors play pivotal roles in ensuring sufficient gas provisions for the country.

Read more: Punjab to Get 2 Holidays for Schools and Colleges in Smog-Hit Districts.

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